tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC April 3, 2014 4:00am-6:01am EDT
this is "worldwide exchange." i'm ross westgate. here are the headlines. russia's economics minister tells us the country's slowdown is a domestic issue and not down to sanctions. speaking to cnbc, he's rolled out restrictions against capital -- >> it's absolutely impossible, absolutely. we very much need movement of goods and services. >> china unveils a mini stimulus
package rounding up spending. it helps the country's railway stocks steam ahead. imf christine legarde urging policy easing. and stronger data helps appreciating stocks to the longest rally in three months. the dow flirting with a new high. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. and welcome to today's program. we are just over an hour into trading during the european session at the moment. you can see on the stoxx europe 600 currently, advancers being outpaced by decliners by around about 5/4 at the moment. let's show you where we stand. we hit the session lows just a
short while ago. yesterday, the ftse 100 was up just six points. right now, it's fairley flat. we have services data coming out of the uk. we had the latest composite services pmi ticked down 53. the flash is 54. that drives the composite on the dow 54.3. we get the collective eurozone number in just a few minutes. head of the ecb meeting later today. under pressure to act from the imf, particularly bearing in mind inflation is now at 0.5%. it's unlikely that they will, but you never know. the ftse mib is up 0.2% at the moment. let's show you where we stand with the bond markets. treasury yields continuing high yesterday, adp coming in, 191,000 private sector. rerevised up the february number, as well. this ahead of the employment numbers tomorrow. ten-year treasury yields, 2.79% is where we stand at the moment. it had been up to 2.18% earlier.
along with the currency markets, the yields continue to nudge higher -- sorry, a little bit lower. dollar/yen, just below 104. we hit a fresh ten-year high. euro/dollar, 1.3762. that's where we stand right now in europe. let's find out what's happened in asia today. sri is the man with the update in singapore. >> ross, thank you very much. the market has had a chance to digest what's happened. you can see the reaction from investors. unbalanced is fairley underwell manyings. hang seng, 0.2%. many people did see a positive effect in the market, especially
in the railway stocks. the rail infrastructure we'll see is one of the biggest mini series of this package. so we saw a surge, but that surge quickly faded. overall, this mini stimulus package should start bleeding through and having a positive impact on the economy sometime in the second quarter of this year. the positive factor to take away from here is that it was calibrated, it was instrumental. the markets seem to be here. are we going to get that like the fed? it's going to be very data dependant. the services sector pmi which was on balance fairley effective. but the markets taking that with a pinch of salt. a lot of uncertainty on the china economic front. let's switch over to japan. you were talking about the
weakness in japan. fresh ten-week lows of the impact. that helped the market there. strong correlation between the currency market and equities for the nikkei 225. 126-point gain there. we are seeing some resilience. we have some fairley dismal factory output numbers, as well, as well as a fairley down beat tankan. taking that in stride and looking for further in the yen this year. heading into the ecb and your neck of the woods and heading into nonfarm payroll. >> thank you for that, sri. let's recap the composite pmis that we now have out in the
eurozone. 53.1 or 52.3 in february. the german number a little weaker than the flash number. nevertheless, market says this is pointing to growth of 0.5% in the first quarter. but here is the key, bearing in mind it's the ecb meeting today. the busiest quarter in three years for eurozone businesses. but they've done it by slashing prices. survey showing -- this is what we're seeing at the moment and that underscores bits there there is a risk of deinflation. we're in disinflation at the moment and that is a concern, of course, that the imf is expecting today. we're going to have more on that as we go through the show. right now, we're going to talk russia. and the economics minister has been telling the cnbc that the country has no plans to impose restrictions to prevent capital leaving the country. he's been speaking to geoff who joins us now from moscow.
>> yeah, ross. let's pick up on this point. clearly, one of the things that has made people nervous over this ukrainian crisis has been what impact it would have on the russian economy and ultimately what it would mean for fdi flight from russia. we've already seen projections of about $100 billion for this year. but quite frankly, no one knows whether it will be higher or lower with that number. there will be no restriction on capital either leaving or entering the country. let's have a listen. >> no, not at all. it's absolutely impossible, absolutely. we very much believe in free movement of goods and services but capital, as well. we have absolutely free capital
account more than now administration and now economic. and that is our principal position in 2008, '9, then 130 will have nothing to do with the restrictions and the capital movement. >> so no restrictions on capital? >> no restrictions. >> and no restrictions on jpmorgan, merrill lynch bank of america, any of these companies that are engaged in the sanctions program? >> no, because that's not their game. >> not their game? >> not their game, no. >> whose game? >> and there's nothing that you want to do to take action? you don't see any need to punish them for what they're doing?
>> as far as it comes to me, no. >> just a couple of take aways that i think is worth pointing out here. the jpmorgan story has made headlines in russia. jpmorgan, obviously a result of washington-led sanctions have blocked the processing of payment from the russian embassy. this was described as illegal and unacceptable by the foreign minister. the economy minister, though, saying jpmorgan and other banks will not face tilt for at that time tat sanctions for any actions that they take which are political. and the other point, this is an economy that was slowing down, anyway. the ukraine crisis is only making things worse. the economy minister saying to me that if anything may encourage them to push ahead with liberalizing the economy faster because they need to do something to counteract this slowdown in domestic demand. back to you.
>> geoff, thanks for that. plenty more to come from you in moscow. yes, it is the ecb's monthly meeting today and they're doing so against the bank of falling inflation and increasing hopes for further stimulus. the president is indicating the inflation data is, of course, a concern. the qe is potentially a policy tool on the table. this is external pressure for action that's been up. ollie rehn says he's concerned about ebb flagz. reza moghadam says there's more room for further easing. does this suggest further easing may be on the way at some point? morgan stanley thinks it's too
soon for an agreement on a rate cut. rbc says no qe anytime soon. cnbc has been asking the opinion of influential voices from around the continent, as well. >> europe on will need an expansion of monetary policy for quite some time to get out of this doldrum. >> so we're not doing enough? >> well, i think the ecb is sending the right signals, but then we need to see them take some action. >> sovereign bonds because they're at risks. sovereignsy risks between the taxpayers of different countries. this could undermine the framework of the area and this also poses certain legal problems. >> the ecb should not just wait for other countries to move their currencies and have the
euro -- whereas everybody else is -- i think we should be more productive. there's many of the thoughts that are being shared around the continent. annette is outside the ecb headquarters on a regular perch in frankfurt. annette, interesting saying this latest pmi number. still, we had the busiest quarter in three years, which is great expectations are up. but it comes on the back of companies slashing prices. and the question is just how far is the ecb prepared to tolerate weakening prices? >> yeah. that's a very good question. what we know for sure is that the ecb is saying and thinking that this low inflation environment is here to stay for quite a while. just as a reminder, last march, staff projection was showing after only three years, the ecb
is actually thinking that inflation rate will come back close to that target. so it's quite a while until we most likely see inflation picking up. i think the key question is whether we see inflation decelerating even further from a very low reading now for march. and that would be a reason the ecb had to act, at least i say that, but a lot of market participants are also thinking about that potential. and now joined by one of them prominent market participants, black frog and i'm going to talk with the director and portfolio manager in new york. so thank you very much for joining us here. so what are your expectations for today's meeting? there's a lot of chatter that the ecb should move looking at inflation. >> yeah. i think it's going to be a really important meeting today. the ecb can establish itself as the second most dovish central
bank after the bank of japan. i think that's a subtle shift from where we are. what i'm expecting is not necessarily a cut in rates, but i'm expecting draghi to take a dovish tone in the press conference. as investors, we want to learn more about what are the unconventional truths that are available, how close are we to getting them triggered. there are many things the ecb can do to reflat the eurozone economy. >> how is it to replay the eurozone economy when the rest of the world seems to be in a deflationary environment? >> you ask a really important point here. it's not necessarily about what's happening in europe. it's also about what's happening outside of europe. it's really important to look at global deflationary pressures right now.
what i would point out is for many central banks that operate at the zero lower bound on interest rates, it's all about expectations. for me, i'm looking at how draghi is looking at expectations. i'm really curious to see whether the ecb wants to go down that road and introduce some of those tools that have proven to be fairley effective. >> looking at one of the territories for the ecb that would be, as well, quantitative easing. but they actually could look to others and for bank. do you think they prefer quantitative easing because there might be some kind of role model elsewhere in the world? >> yeah. i think what the ecb wants to look at is quantitative easing and other regions. what has worked and what hasn't worked. as i said earlier, it's all about setting expectations. so one of the things that the ecb might introduce is releasing its minutes. so investors get a good feel of the debate around inflation. how concerned are the members of
the governing council. and potentially one of the things the federal reserve has interviewsed is the famous duck charts for members of the governing council to show us where are the expectations three, four years out. are they really different to us as investors or how do they think about that tradeoff? >> thank you very much. so, ross, you see, there is still a lot of room for improvement, as well as the communication strategy of the european. with that, i'm sending it back to you. >> all right, annette. thanks for that. we'll have plenty more from frankfurt. that decision at 14:30 and we'll be covering it all here on cnbc. still to come, miley cyrus has found herself in the middle of a sanctions dispute. can she t the werk her way out of it? that's coming up. [ grunting ]
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credit suisse has told investors it set aside an additional 500 francs to cover towards related to the investigation. the ceo brady dugan has been given a big pay raise for 2015. the fbi has reportedly opened a criminal probe into the $400 million fraud involving citigroup's mexican unit. in february, it was disclosed it discovered loans and says banamex may have been in on the crime. citigroup stock flat in frankfurt. a u.s. judge has dismissed a lawsuit against tremont
holdings. the suit accused tremont of investing $3.3 billion with madoff for more than a decade without investigating red flags, but he never bought securities. tremont has secured claims with other investors in a class action suit based on the same allegation. and the new french finance minister michelle sapin says timing of the deficit payment is up for discussion. stephane has the latest for us out of paris. what do you think he means by that? >> it's not a formal request, but at least it's on the table, ross, after this comment made to the radio station. they say france will maintain its deficit reduction target, but the timing will be discussed, clearly, suggesting that another delay could be an option that france would request. yesterday the new prime minister gave an interview to the tv
station tf-11. he explained that france would have to reduce its deficit target, that there were no other options. however, he explained that the government would have to do it intelligently without putting the public services at risk for suggesting that there could be perhaps a delay without saying it formally. france missed the public deficit target reduction plans, 4.3% of gdp at the end of 2013. that was higher than the official target of 4.1%. i'm sure, ross, that's going to discuss that a lot over the next coming weeks. >> okay. stephane, thanks for that. now, the emerging market rally continues today despite poor services data emerging from china. the msci index rose for the ninth straight day on wednesday. it helped emerging markets extend their longest rally for 15 months.
good to see you. it's hard to talk about emerging markets as one asset class. clearly now there are so many individual drivers. are kwe seeing gains because we're going to get more? >> i don't think the chinese market had to be strong, actually. we had indeed these stimulus measures. i think they were maybe a little better than expected because they're a bit wider. so it includes tax cuts and some new financing for infrastructure and housing. so it's good. i don't think the markets are -- do it. it's okay. >> yeah. look, we had a rate hike in brazil yesterday. and clearly, you know, we have seen central banks in emerging markets having to respond to the pressures they've been under, capital controls.
how is that going to change what governments have to do? >> yeah, i think they indeed have been -- policy. so they were very unorthodox in the monetary policy for a few years. that changed last year. in a way, that was a good response. and now yesterday they hiked again as expected. but they also more or less said that they would not hike again later, which suggests to me, as well, that even the central bank is taking the recent market strength as a reason to maybe stop doing what they still have to do because brazil is still not a very strong story and inflation is still high. so there is maybe a sign on that the central banks are becoming opportunistic again. >> presumably, monetary policy would still remain tight despite the weakness of economic growth.
clearly now whether it's presumably in brazil or on india, the pressure is on politicians to finally enact their only structural reforms. >> absolutely. so the monetary response has always been there, maybe not as good as we would have hoped. but on the structural reform side, supply side reform, fiscal reform, that has to start in most countries. india is a good example, brazil is a good example, indonesia, south africa, turkey, all these countries have to start doing something. >> what risks are there, still, then? you talk with we're still at risk of nonperforming loans. how big a risk is that? >> yeah, i think it crossed the border of emerging markets. we know that growth is merely driven by chinese demand and credit growth. now, china is clearly slowing despite the recent easing and
china will continue to slow over the next few years. and the other driver credit will have difficult to keep at high levels. financial conditions are tighter. the global market is not a support. so i would say that, yes, these countries really have to find other sources of growth. meanwhile, as growth stays low and currency is on the weak side, interest rates are higher. there will probably be more corporate defaults in several countries. and in the places with the leverage rate, every country is different. >> always good to see you. thanks for joining us. now, miley cyrus has managed to twerk her way into a sanctions dispute. one of her concerts may violate
u.s. sanctions in russia. the problem is it's owned by a finish holding company which is controlled by three russians who are on the u.s. sanctions list. like nation, which booked the venue for cyrus and a whole venue of other stars should theoretically be barred from completing any transportations with the arena unless it gets special permission for the u.s. treasury. anyway, which pop star do you think should be banned from playing in your city the? why? because they've -- because they're breaking sanctions? anyway, maybe just because you don't like them. join the conversation on "worldwide exchange." get in touch with us. e-mail us, email@example.com, tweet @cnbcwex or direct to me @rosswestgate. it can get a bit noisy these days. see you in a few moments. oments.
it's absolutely impossible. absolutely. we very much believe in free movement of services. >> china unveils a mini stimulus package offering tax breaks. it helps the country's railway stocks. the ecb decides today on rates amid signs of falling inflation, the imf is urging policy easing. and stronger data has helped push u.s. stocks to the longest rally in nearly two months. the s&p at a fresh high. the dow flirting with a new record. the latest pmi out of the uk, services activity, down to 57.6 in march at the lowest since june last year. it's the lowest since 2002 in february. in march, the lowest since june,
as well. the pmi at least 0.7% quarter on quarter in the first quarter. corporate prices down to the lowest since may of last year. banks made more loans available in the first quarter, banks reporting a significant rise in demand for loans by medium and large companies. and there is a significant fall in credit card demand in the first quarter, as well. companies falling at the fastest rate on record on. personal low prices and the fastest rate on record, as well. the chief economist at the eiu
counter intelligence unit, good to see you. thank you. >> the composite number down to around 58.11. a fairley comfortable pace of growth? >> both manufacturing and services pmi were down slightly this month. a number sort of 56, 57, 58, signifies the expansion. >> you combine that with the prices and now inflation is down again. we're in a very rare spot here where we've got stronger growth and weakening inflation. >> we're low inflation is presenting a bit of a quantitiry. it's not in the remiss of the bank of england to control. and low inflation is good in the uk and in the rest of europe if it increases competitiveness. there's a lot of spare capacity in the uk and in the eurozone.
>> the uk, being in that sort of trap or not? everybody else posted that, the uk markedly higher inflation as we know. large growth is nearlily extremely subdued in the uk. real wages have been falling now for two or three years. the wage growth is starting to be higher than inflation which is nice news for uk workers. but only there's still plenty of undermroird workers in the uk. they go to the regions, they speak to local people, i think it's a good thing. he wants more jobs growth.
>> i think central banks and mark carney in particular have got themselves into a bit of a pickle about their changing definition for qualitative guidance and having to move all the time. it undermines their credibility which has been build up by many years. interest rates will be low for a long time, regard also of when the policy rate will go up. markets have already priced in a certain trajectory with u.s. central bank winding back on qe. market rates have risen slightly. >> meanwhile, chancellor george osborne is facing questions from the treasury select committee for his 2014 budget. it includes the design to boost income as well as that affected by low interest rates. do you think the budget is right? i mean, what's the key measure? >> i mean, the measures to
increase savings are very good in the medium term for the uk economy. uk consumers have too much debt and not enough savings. increasingly limits and also increasing the amount of compositeory savings. the uk economy desperately needs in the middle term. the government could really be doing with a bit on of a higher deficit at the moment with interest rates being so low. that was combined to medium term measures to reduce deficits. that would put the economy in a much stronger position. thank you so much for joining us. european equities meanwhile have been trying to move a little higher. the ftse mib up 0.6%. let's show you where we stand with serlg post ta data, as well.
it's a little weaker than where we have been during the session today. dollar, yen, just below the 1104 mark. jpmorgan says it will process a payment for russia's embassy to an insurance agency after they threatened to retaliate. one of the banks hit by sanctions. jeff caught up with the russian economics minister and he says russia will not extend loans to banks like jpmorgan.
>> it is not a good way of doing business, anyway. because we know very much the company and we have long and successful credit story with that the and it's so easy for some small -- a small principal they're doing to change the general performance. i now think that's the way the company have to do deals. >> two companies that are engaged in the american sanctions program, do they risk missing out on future business here in russia? will jpmorgan get frozen out of future ipos as a result of the action it's now taking? >> i do not think we'll have to react in some symetrical way.
now with russian investment business isolation or some plans about that. that it will not, you know, press the company but there was -- by some political pressure or, anyway. our response is to make more comfortable for the businesses. we are very much interested for participating in our investment program share. they will try to make more comfortable. >> so companies shouldn't fear that they're going to get squeezed out or frozen out of business opportunities in russia as a result of some tit for tat exchange? >> no, no. i do not think we have to -- any
kind of relationships. they will try to explain themselves, explain the macroeconomic for the political situation and say welcome and please invest and make preparation for companies. >> obviously, the flow of capital output in russia is not a good story for the economy. is there any prospect that you might freeze the flow of money out of russia or put some bans on oligarchs moving money out of the country? >> no, absolutely. we very much believe in free movement of not only goodses and services, but capital, as well. >> so no restrictions on capital inspect. >> no. >> and no restrictions on jpmorgan, bank of america merrill lynch or any of these countries engaged in the
sanctions program? >> no, because you understand that is not their game, no. this is a political story. and there's nothing that you want to do to take action -- but you don't see any need to punish them for what they're doing? >> as far as it comes to me, no. >> all right. joining us after that, the man who conducted it, geoff, quite a good exchange there, geoff. what is the situation did you think they find themselves in? there are capital outflows you talked about. how big or how badly is the economy going to see? >> well, it's going to be pretty rough, isn't it? we had nokia come out and revise
their sound growth expectations today. and they are fighting ukraine. we've seen a finish company say they are putting on hold some investment plans here. none of this is going to help. i want to talk a little bit about the investment case and whether there is a good opportunity to buy a good value in the russian market. jacob is with me, a partner of east capital. nice to see you this morning. you've got $5 billion invested in equities in this part of the world. do you think the russian market is valued today? >> sure. the russian market is trading at four times earning. it's trading at the same price it was in 2008. but in 2008, the market was down 85%.
russian companies could not refinance themselves. it was a very deep crisis. now we're seeing a company still show nice growth rate. last year even though gdp was growing about 1%. this year, many of our companies can grow. >> we had retailers losing half of their market value today. i think there are some very good buying opportunities. i think there are. we have increasing positions in the funds in the past few weeks. >> how about buying ruble based assets? >> sure, but i think the central bank is providing that. >> the region obviously looked
attractive on valuations, as well. i just wonder how committed are you at this stage? are you fully invested in russia and other regional markets? >> yes, we have. we have been increasing positions in russia. >> do you think we are in the end game and that we are going to see some stability now as you analyze it from an investment perspective? >> yes. our base case scenario is that this is it. and from here, hopefully, we might even see some reforms from the russian government to try to stimulate growth, which is what they need now. >> it's been very good speaking with you, jacob. let's hope thaw put the money in the right place for the fund managers. good to see you this morning. >> thank you. >> jacob, thank you for being with me from east capital. ross, back to you for now. >> catch you a little bit later. we move from russia to japan.
7-eleven convenience store seven and i holdings confirmed its results. makiko has more for us from tokyo. >> yes. the operating sales were up 15% region over 3 billion. the fund said its core business has tapped into convenient stores helped by its products. net profit rose 27% to $1.7 billion. now, unlike its rivals, the company has focused mainly on its domestic market. japan is set to be oversaturated. but the company says there is still room to grow by services. forecast sales will grow another 9% to nearly $60 billion with net profits climbing 5%.
world. these when property prices fell by over 50% in less than one year and that shook global financial markets. now, we were one of the very few networks who since 2009 were able to put him to task about what happened. and 4 1/2 years on, here is what he had to say about the bubble and the ensuing crisis. >> it doesn't mean you mean it. but in reality, imagine today with the growth we have. if you have what we need. >> are you surprised by the amount of spending on the stock markets when people reacted with fear? i after seeing that dubai may not meet its obligations. >> i was confident.
>> maybe that's an effect of the default. >> absolutely. >> do you think that was an overreaction, as well? >> absolutely that was an overreaction. from the central bank. >> so i take it from your point of view, there's no bubble in the making again? >> i believe not, definitely. >> an interesting response and meanwhile the majority owned by dubai world recently announced earnings. those me met expectations and the downturn, as well. to global economic headwinds. now, when you look at dp world's global footprint, notice there is a glaring fwap. that is the united states. in 2006, dp world went in and
bought a bunch of assets and then had to dispose of the assets again after coming under pressure from american politicians because they were saying it's a risk to national security. is that real reason why dp world has yet to return to the united states? >> i do think there is a problem coming again. we have been approached. we have looked. the problem is economic. we cannot find it to build again in assets. >> let's assume that u.s. growth picks up and the opportunity does become attract i. would there be any political considerations or is the past reconciled? >> from our side or them? there's no issue. when that's happening, we made a business decision.
basically if there are issues, to disrupt business, disrupt economy and the report. >> the bp world stock which is listed on nasdaq in dubai and has underperformed the benchmark index which is the best performing market in the first three months. but analysts feel there's still a lot of value to be gained for the remain as the economy is expected to pick up. so there is a lot to talk about. remember london gateway, significant exposure there. also his view on china and the rest of the emerging markets space. a fascinating conversation, ross. >> it on permanent lock in my electronic programming guide. >> you never let me down, ross. >> no, i don't. it's well worth listening to. thursday, 2300 cet. it starts tonight.
good to see you. it's been a while, too long. now, high frequency trading has come under a lot of scrutiny lately. log on to cnbc.com to get jim cramer's view. he says the s.e.c. won't be tracking down on it anytime soon. if you want to know exactly what high frequency trading is, steve will try to break it down for us. >> equity trading now back into the public eye with critics arguing the trading method comes ordinary investors out of billions of dollars. but how exactly does it work? they can sell it on to the investor while pocketing the investments. if you do this many, many times over, the numbers start adding up. what is the variance of on hsbc? there are a number of different trading techniques.
the s.e.c. has broken them down into four main groups. market making. this is very old fashioned. the aim here is to make the spread, of course. then you have arbitrage. very simple again. mispricing between assets between indices and stocks. this is a very old fashioned practice, but it's now gone at a very fast speed. you've got issues taking advantage of structural vulnerability, both in the market and indeed in a participant's positioning in that market, as well. and fairley directional, as well. this is attempting to get ahead of or indeed to trigger a price move. so far, so good. but the high frequency trading has come under some serious scrutiny. credit suisse has a very good piece together with the strategists that seek to distort the playing fields. they send large numbers of orders and cancels those orders.
many, many orders in the market are priced to create a false impression of a stock's liquidity. this is lightning fast reactions to news and all the pressure leading to liquidity. this is good old fashioned detection of big orders and then front running ahead of those orders. time advances. it's nothing new, but it's the top speed now. there are questions over legalities. and whether the playing field now needs to be leveled. >> if you want to know more, there you go. european equities this morning as we await the ecb's decision later, flat in germany and france, just up 0.2% in the uk. uk composite ticking marginally lower this morning. but still well in expansion
territory. and eurozone composite coming in at 53.1. we did see germany taking a nudge down and france taking a nudge up. as far as the u.s. futures are concerned, well, we could make it five sessions in a row. we've been up for four straight days. the s&p right now is called fairley flat. dow up 8 points, nasdaq the currently up 3. we had adp sector yesterday, of course we get the ism manufacturing numbers coming out. still to come, citi the group could be facing possibly probe at its mexican unit. details, coming up. tails, comin.
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moving ahead. and the data has stocks at the longest rally in months as the dow hits new highs. perhaps the ecb decides to ways to submit inflation. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. we are just two hours into the trading session here in europe and this is where we stand. pretty even stevens on the dow jones 600. u.s. futures are indicating a fairley flat start, as well. remember, we've had four days of gains for u.s. stocks. down 40 points yesterday. the s&p up at a fresh record
high right now, indicated fairley flat. the s&p up a point, the nasdaq at the moment around 3 points above fair value. european equities are mixed. we did see pmi tick down slightly, but strong around a composite number of around 58. and they also moved higher in the eurozone. composite figure 53.1, 53.2 ahead of the ecb meeting today. on the bond market, treasury yields we saw hit the highs since early march on the ten-year, 2.811 %. we've come back a little bit since then to 2.7953%. and on the currency markets, the yen has been up again the dollar. that's a fresh ten-week high. or it's ten-week lows, depending on which way you look at it.
and euro/dollar, 1.3762. we did hit 1.3820 on wednesday, which was a one-week high. but we have come back a little bit since then, of course, as well. that's where we stand. let's recap the asian session. sri has more for us out of singapore. sri. thanks, ross. it was patchy all in all. and the markets have had time to guy guest this mini sympathy ewe husband package that we heard from beijing. and the pons response, as you can see, was fairley underwomening. you've got to ask yourself, a lot of what we saw in the package has been enshrined in chinese economic policy. nevertheless, earlier in the day we saw a pop in property
developers and a big rise in the railway stocks, as well. no big bang here. perhaps why the market responded in the way that it did the. hsbc came out and said hold your horses, we should see some positive feedback in the economy feeding through in the latter part of the second quarter. probably beijing has managed to accomplish its feat of heating the economy in a fairley even keel of just over 7%. still, the markets seem to be quite hungry for bold measures. but like the fed, it will be gates dependent. services sector pmi from china today was fairley robust. so we need to see further data confirmation of a trend. over in japan, it was the
currency, ross, that they're talking about, fresh ten-week lows for the yen against the u.s. dollar that held the exporters, the broader market, strong session, strongest of the lot for the nikkei 225, up by 130 points. all that despite the fact that we saw some fairley business mall factory sdwrout put numbers, factory gauge slated earlier this week. that's what the data told us. the tankan survey of business sentiment was fairley down beat, as well. topple that and the market still digesting the impact of the tax hikes. at the end of the day, it looks as though the boj may have to step up to the plate with more stimulus and that may eventually towards the second half of this year. that's what we are hearing right now. it will be interesting to see what the payrolls tell us. and if they are with the numbers, they're calling for
275,000, well above consensus. if we see a number in that ballpark, you can bet the dollar is going to go off to the races and that could ex either more pressure on the yen and the bep fishery could be the nikkei on the back of that. we will wait and see. that's where we stand. >> yep. that's what we're looking at, sri. thanks for that. and the yen seems to be, as you say, a potential action from the bank of japan among other things, as well. we just had retail sales out of the eurozone. february retail sales better than expected. they were forecast to contract 5.7%. i feel like sneezing. now, let's remind you what's on the agenda in the united states today. weekly jobless claims come out at 8:30 eastern forecast to rise by 9,000 to a total of 920. we get february trade deficit figures and at 10:00 march the ism services index is expected
to rise more than two points from february. jeffrey, it's good to see you. an awful lot to trade through. let's just talk about the dollar for a second. now, yellen came out a bit more dovish this week than last week. here is the principal. we have ten-year treasury yields and bunch since you began. we've got clearly the data starting before from the winter weather and it's looking good. it's about very strong barrels numbers up to 300,000. >> in contrast to the eurozone and japan economic growth, one would argue that higher yields and better growth should be pushing the dollar higher at some point. >> well, that's something we've been expecting for a while, but that clearly affects markets responding to rates right now. actually, if you look at the eurozone, it's having more of an
effect on pushing the euro higher. if you look at the ten-year, no one is trading in response to that. it's not really attracting the capital flows that one would expect. where we are getting a bit more traction i think is in dollar/yen. but again, is that a u.s. story or a japan story? the prices show further easing from the boj. it's a bit of a mixed story right now as far as the dollar is concerned. >> euro/dollar is kind of clearly what there is there is international flow going into peripheral debt. so i suppose the question is how long can that keep the euro up? >> well, i think there are two aspects to that. one, are these forced buyers or are they active buyers? so are they sovereigns going in for the sake of diversification or is it seeing active value in the periphery? maybe it's a bit more performer
or -- >> it might be people in emerging markets. right. yeah. it's people stopping out and other positions are being forced into europe. at some point, you have to look at the growth figures, the inflation expectations and it's just not working. it's not happening. at that time if the ecb actions why we have to action, we probably will see some response. but we're not there yesterday. >> dovish comments today to send the euro lower? >> i think what may stand out in upcoming meetings, including today's is what draghi says on the euro. the fact that he has a line in the sand for 136 is anchoring the ecb stock projections. so if we see the euro showing trend signs well above 136, the currency right now is deposing inflation. >> which is a bit weird. one would think what happens in the u.s. would be growth raids, market rates, and growth and inflation will take care of the
currency. >> agreed. >> you don't have to target the currencies because if he had fundamentals should take care of it. >> and i think that's what the ecb has been expecting all along. but it's not happening. >> jeffrey, stay there. some of the other stories we're following today, reportedly there's a criminal probe involving citibank's mexican unit. in february they were looking at loans. the "new york times" report investigation is focusing on whether holes in citi's internal controls contributed to the fraud and whether the bank was a victim and an enabler. citi stock is pretty flat in frankfurt.
in a speech on wednesday, they say it's being undercut. he took aim at a report last year. another s.e.c. commissioner says it had superior expertise. chile, meanwhile, has been hit by a powerful 7.6 magnitude after shock earthquake. but there are no reports of damage so far. and an initial tsunami along the coast has been canceled. it is the strongest of the number of after shocks following a big earthquake earlier this week. the area where the quake hit is home to some of the biggest mines in chile. but most have said they have
the headlines, russia's economic minister tells cnbc his country's economic program is not due to sanctions. china's mini stimulus spends on railways. and christine lagarde is urging the ecb to act on slowdowns when it meets in germany. the head of the international monetary fund has urged the ecb to act. christine lagarde says the central bank should urge the erb to move higher. low inflation could compromise an already sluggish economy. annette, the key concern is the debt dynamic. it doesn't help debt sustainability if you've got lower inflation. on the other hand, i wonder what the ecb make of this inflation. because they could argue, i suppose, that look, it's around
things like energy, the bank is a little bit later and that, you know, actually, when you look at their core basket, only 20% of it is down. >> yeah, that's likely what we are going to hear from the ecb. that's one offslip of inflation in march due to seasonal factors. so -- but nevertheless, the ecb is still concerned also about the trend of inflation, at least their chief economist is quite an outspoken, yeah, hawk, i would say. and he's -- yeah, he's extremely critical about any potential easing or any potential falling into the deflationary environment and the recent inflation data are also showing us that spain is actually in deflationary environment right now. so it tells you also again the story of how diverse the
eurozone is when it comes to inflation development, but also when it comes to growth. most likely what we are going to hear from mario draghi is that he's seeing his growth story, the economic recovery in the eurozone intact and that is underpinned by recent economic data. we have those service pmi numbers coming out, which came out today in the morning which are showing that, for example, ireland has a reading above 60. so that's really expansionary, ross. with that, back to you. >> all right. thanks very much indeed for that. of course, we're covering that rate decision here on cnbc in europe with extended programming. it is at 12:45 cet. now, we have comments coming out from the peoples bank of china. the central bank says it wants to maintain prudent monetary policy and keep reasonable growth in credit. they will further deepen the financial system reform in true financial sector efficiency. they're going to further push forward interest rates and the
u.n. exchange rate reform and will closely watch the latest moves. jeffrey is still with us. what do you make of those comments? >> this comes from the pboc monetary policy committee. so it forces an advisory in policy setting, but ultimately it's trying to stay the course. more important not try to send an overly positive message. we have the exchange rate shock onner, which a lot of people didn't like. it's part of the long standing process. i think in the short-term, when we talk about stimulus efforts, they want to change the narrative. i think that's very, very important for market sentiment. they're not going to pursue the reform which could stabilize growth. the track was announced in january, but now they're reminding us that here st what
the government is capable of. >> have they introduced the idea that the currency is a two-way -- >> i think that's the biggest achievement over the last few weeks or so. the governor admitted if you want to invest in china based on offshore cny through the fund market or through other proper channels, absolutely fine. but if you're going to do the carry trade, that is slightly a gamble. >> which i suppose is the key point. nevertheless, dollar -- where do you see the revised dollar renminbi? >> dollar renminbi is very confident it's going to come down this year. if you look at rate differentials, that's in china right now. so we see 610 heading towards the end of the year if not lower. >> good to see you. key calls for dollar/yen at the end of the year and euro/dollar. >> dollar/yen heading towards 110. 108. euro/dollar, well down towards the 130 or so, towards 133 in
three months. like being short selling right now or if you like this, be sure selling. >> good to see you. thank you very much. jeffrey. we'll take a short break. still to come, we'll take a look at the oil market. further nuclear talks. a reminder of where european stocks are trading. pretty even stevens between advancers and decliners.
the news out from george osborne, into the investigation on the branch sale from lloyd's, remember, they have been forced to sell branches. he says no political pressure was imposed on lloyds in that branch sale. there were quick commercial decisions, that was a matter for lloyds and the treasury is pleased they decided to proceed with the offer for the co-op. at all times, very clearly, the british government actually had a stake in lloyd's which they have been reducing. lloyds stock just off about 0.3%. at no point is the uk treasury seek to interfere in the lloyd's
branch process. so knew, we'll move on. russia has reportedly made progress towards an oil for goods deal that could be worth up to $20 billion enabling tehran to boost fines in western sanctions. a russian source has told reuters moscow that has prepared all documents from its side and is now waiting on the oil price to lock into the deal. the world powers reached an interim sanction in november and reached a final sentiment and talks are expected to continue today. senior oil strategist at bnp paribas, how do these talks feed into that? >> i think some geopolitical -- come out of oil price around ukraine. i think the disruption to oil
supplies that will take place in the ukrainian crisis and on the basis that we're dependent on russian oil. in terms of the latest news around iran and a potential deal with russia, clearly, the sanctions that are currently in place by the u.s., they will continue for some time. there are some restrictions in terms of sanctions. but how committed is it? i think maply exports are for the likes of china and india and those are the critical allies that need support or step in in support of the european sanctions and the u.s. sanctions. russian sanctions are less and, therefore, should have a very limited impact. and the oil price, bear in mind that saudi arabia can adjust their production on the basis of
production that might come from ubs or iran. >> you mentioned ubo. we've seen brent drop more than $3 this week. how much is that on prospects that maybe libya and supply might come back after the government process to reopen oil ports controlled by rebels? >> there's hardly any production coming from like ya at the moment. and the latest news suggests both parties in the east and west of libya want to seek a solution so they can generate revenues. and we've seen over the last six or seven months various promises have been made and have not been met. also the insurance issue taking ships out of libyan waters given what we've seen in the past few
weeks. so i think the prices are all going to come off on the basis of perhaps the fears around the global economic slowdown. >> good to see you today. thanks for joining us. now, miley cyrus, meanwhile, has managed to get herself into some political hot water. believe it or not, she's twerked her way to sanctions dispute. one of her concerts may violate u.s. sanctions. it's owned by a holding company which is owned by russians who are on the list. it should, theoretically, be barred from completing any transactions from the ae reason na unless it gets special permission from the u.s. treasury.
russia's economics minister tells us the country's slowdown is a domestic issue and not down to sanctions. speaking exclusively to cnbc, he's ruled out restrictions against capital flight. >> no, not at all. it's absolute lie impossible, absolutely. we very much believe in free movement. >> china unveils a mini stimulus package ramping up infrastructure spending. but helps the country's railway stocks steam ahead. stronger data has helped pushed u.s. stocks to the longest rally in nearly two months. the dow flirting with a new high. and the ecb decides on rates considering weakening inflation. the imf's christine lagarde is urging more policy easing. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing
you business news from around the globe. if you've just joined us stateside, welcome to the start of your global trading day here on cnbc's "worldwide exchange." u.s. futures, pretty flat start at the open after we moved higher yesterday. the dow, 40 points, flirting with that record high. the s&p offered a fresh record stocks up for four days in a row. right now, the dow just four points above fair value. we're pretty much on it for the nasdaq and the s&p. european equities have been flat to a little bit higher this morning. xetra dax and the cac 40 absolutely flat. we should see composite pmis tick higher. they were slightly lower from the flash of german pmis weaker than the month of march. the central pmis continue to improve. this is on the composite number this morning. the ftse mib is up 0.4 had%. we are flat for the ftse 100. now, at the same time, growth in
china's services sector may have slowed slightly in march. but the sector is a bright spot for the world's second biggest economy. because while the services pmi dipped to 43.5, the level is the dividing point between contraction and expansion. beijing has stepped up at the stumbling economy. the state council says it's ramping up in railways and housing. this as china gives small businesses a tax break. eunice yoon has more details for us from beijing. >> beijing announced a new mini stimulus to help support the slowing economy. the measurements are in line with its reform goal. the country is spending billions on railways to improve access to areas in the rural part of the economy. and it's offering tax relief to small businesses that are struggling in the current economic conditions. these are targeted measures aimed at stabilizing growth, not the big spending seen after the
financial crisis in 2008. the government has expressed wariness of a repeat of massive stimulus and the debt problems that comes with it. now, it says that the construction of the new rail lines and social housing will be financed differently through bonds and development funds to minimize further risks to the financial sector. so far, there are no signs that this will ease the economy. eunice yoon, cnbc, beijing. we're off to moscow. jpmorgan says it will process a transaction from the russian embassy in kazakhstan, having initially proposed to do so. the russian foreign minute city says the bank initially prevented the money transfer from the money industry to the insurance group sogaz. one of the banks that was hit by sanctions. geoff has been speaking to the economy minister. he joins us now in moscow, as
well. it's a strange sort of world we're in pp. mil miley cyrus is in a concert in helsinki and it's being threatened because of russian sanctions, as well. >> it's the difficulty of dealing with the new normal as it relates to washington's relationship with moscow now, ross. and jpmorgan, like a number of other financial institutions have found themselves in a difficult the place. sanctions have been imposed. there are some restrictions now on the transactions that russian entities and particularly the government can engage in. and companies are having to work there way around the language. and trying to understand what exactly this means in terms of future business engagements with russia. so initially, it seems this the payment was blocked. now it seems jpmorgan is going
to allow that payment to take place. i have the chance to talk to the economy minister this morning and that was a question that i put to him. look, if you see these western companies that are pursuing the sanctions against you, will there be some tit for tat response? can jpmorgan and others expect that they will be closed out of some russian business? let's listen to what he said. >> i do not think that it's a good way of doing business, anyway. because we know very much the company and we have a long and successful credit story with that. and it's so easy from small, small unpredictable -- to change the general performance. i do not think that's the way the company has to do deals. >> two companies that are
engaged in the american sanctions program, do they risk missing out on future business here in russia? will jpmorgan get frozen out of future russian ipos as a result of the actions it's now taking? >> i do not think we'll have to react in some symmetrical way. i generally message to the businesses which are now in russian investment and general business situation or which have some plans about that. that there will not -- the companies about -- there was by some political pressure or anyway. our response is to make more comfortable for the businesses. we are very much interested
in -- to participate in our investment programs here. so we will not -- i don't think we have have to -- them. we will make more comfortable. >> so companies shouldn't fear that they're going to get squeezed out of or frozen out of business opportunities in russia as a result of some tit for tat exchange? >> no, no, i do not the think so. i do not think that we have to any kind of relationships. russia will try to explain ourselves, explain the macroeconomic and the political situation and very welcome and please invest and please make preparation with companies. >> obviously, the flow of capital out of russia is not a good story for growing the economy. is there any prospect that you might freeze the flow of money
out of russia or put some bans on oligarchs moving their money out of the country? >> no, not at all. it's absolutely impossible. absolutely. we very much believe in free movement of not only goods and services, but capital, as well. >> so no restriction owes capital? >> no. >> and no restriction owes jpmorgan, goldman sachs, merrill lynch, bank of america merrill lynch, any of these company that are are engaged in the sanctions program? >> no, because with the understanding it's not their game. >> not their game, no. >> whose game? >> this is a political story and there's nothing that the you want to do to take action against them? you don't see any need to punish them for what they're doing? >> as far as it comes to me, no. >> well, i think it's useful to
spend a little bit more time analyzing what impact we may have seen on the russian economy from the whole ukraine crisis. bridget hansel is with me. she joins me from the world bank. she is the lead economist for the russian federation here. and has just put out a report on this economy. thank you for giving us your time. let me ask you, i mean, how much slower will economic growth be here in 2014 as a result of the ukraine crisis? >> russia is navigating an economic downturn. this is due to a loss of confidence of investors that happened during the last year but this lack of confidence, which was a more slower progressing problem recently escalated into a confidence crisis. during 2013, we already saw growth dropping to 1.3% and when
we look at the outlook, the world bank for russia, we see geopolitical risk in our forecast and we developed two scenarios, one that assumes more limited and short list impact of this geopolitical risk and that would lead to 1 .1% of growth in 2014 and one higher which assumes that there would be continuation of the crisis over time this year. this is a big sector contractan of the economy of 1.8%. >> the central bank moves to try to prevent the ruble from falling much further in value. clearly, there are going be implications from that. the finance minister says there will be no fiscal stimulus to counteract that. are you concerned that a government in crisis mode will
be unattractive to foreign investors and those who might have to consider expanding operations in russia? >> yeah. it's a good question. the last of investors happens due to the heightened uncertainty. and as we can see, due to the high market volatility, already the pressure on the exchange rate and capital outflows increasing in the short-term, but the market is really quite punishing higher uncertainty because that has to be calculated for investors. and to appear, this damage will take some time. and an important strategy for government would be on the crisis management. at the same time, the reform track of implementing structural reforms that provide investors the confidence that there is not more certainty in the future in russia and in the economy.
>> i was just told that, in fact, they will try harder with some domestic liberal ralzation. do you think that's just lip service or do you think the government is willing to act more rapidly? >> well, i think it is really a question now of coming -- it was in the government to consensus on policy traces on how to move ahead from this crisis mode and from resolving this geopolitical crisis. and i'm quite convinced that there is a clear vision that there has to be some changes on how businesses perceive russia as an investment reservation. and a lot of the domestic businesses, too, because they have a very vibrant service sector and why would you like interior most of the profits not used in the investment for
economic activity. >> thank you so much for joining us here. rots, i'll send this back to you on that point. we will wait and watch to see how the russian government moves to try and resolve some of the slower growth issues it now faces. back to you. >> geoff, thank you very much indeed for that. john voigt, i'm sure he was in national treasury. we have some comments coming out from george osborne. he's testifying at the moment in front of parliament. he's saying the treasury did not interfere with the investigation into lloyd's.
on household debt levels, as well. still to come, king digital got crushed in its ipo debut. we'll look at the risk and rewards of going public now. huh, fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. everybody knows that. well, did you know bad news doesn't always travel fast?
russia's economic minister tells cnbc the country's slowdown is not due to sanctions. china unveils a mini stimulus program pushing tax breaks and spending on railways. and the imf's christine legarde is urging ecb to act when it meets in germany today. a dis appoiappointing debut of crushmaker king digital last week has cast a cloud over the ipo market. that is not deterring other companies from taking the plunge. kayla tousche joins us from cnbc hq in the states. hi, kayla. >> hi, ross. it's been a big year for the ipo market and it's only april.
the first two months of 2014 were the busiest since 2000 during the height of the dotcom boom. companies went public in that quarter raising $10.64 billion. health care companies made up nearly half of the ipos in the quarter. from those two sectors are set to price today after the closing bell. grub hub is the most familiar name. it's the online delivery service and it's looking to sell 7 million shares. on tuesday, it's raised the expected price range to $25 a share. at the top en, the deal would raise $176 million. that would value grub hub at just under $2 million. grubhub does the majority of its business in new york, fran and chicago. it has 3.4 million active users as of the end of last year and it processed an average of 135,000 orders a day.
grubhub generated $137 million in revenue in 2013, but it started to face more competition. the likes of yelp partner 24 and delivery.com. grubhub will trade under the ticker grub. meanwhile, ims health is going to sell 65 million shares. that would make it the third largest ipo this year. ims was taken private by ppg in 2010. and it relies on prescription drug sales, pharmaceuticals and prescription drug companies. some of the biggest clients using this dey data which is published weekly. analysts use imf as data to help build their earnings forecast. ims will trade on the nyse, as well, under the ticker ims. ipo activity is expected to stay
busy throughout the spring and summer with the expected companies such as stocks and alibaba. a lot of these smaller cap companies, a market like this has been the perfect environment for them to hit the road. >> it undoubtedly has. thanks for that. have a great day there in the states. meanwhile, in europe, investors are georging on just eats initial offering. this is an online takeout firm and shares are trading higher after pricing its two pound cep. currently at 72.50. still to come, adp data has added more than 190,000 jobs to the u.s. economy last month. tomorrow is nonfarm payrolls sustained for momentum. um.
we've got weekly jobless claims today ahead of the employment report. lance roberts, chief strategist at sca wealth management. in the city of on houston, lance, good morning to you, sir. thanks for joining us. i know it's early for you. >> it is early and i'm happy to be here. thank you. >> we appreciate it. you've got this view that the bulk of the job growth that we do have at the moment is part-time and low wage paying positions. now, first of all, why do us that? and if that is the case, what are the implications? >> well, two things.the one is
that if you look at the number of full time jobs relative to the population, that is basically where we were back in 2009. what that tells the you is we are hiring people. there's no doubt we are putting people to work. the problem is we are only doing it at a pace relative to the growth of the population, the working age population. so we're not hiring people faster than what we have in items of the demand created just by population growth alone. so that really kind of doesn't foster well for a stronger economic growth environment. you know, the fed is hoping to get to 3% or 4% next year. so when you hire people at the pace of population growth, it really doesn't foster that. >> what you're basically saying is that to create stronger job growth, you need higher levels for consumers which isn't going to happen. if the employment you're creating is of the type you're mentioning. >> right, yeah. we are creating jobs, sure, but
they are a lot of part-time. the affordable care act is coming through, it's raising health care costs for businesses. that's impeding their ability to hire and, of course, plan for the future because of higher costs. i'm a business owner on myself. i own two businesses. one of the biggest issues that we have right now is just trying to plan for higher benefit and higher employee costs. the things we're opting for to increase productivity, use technology to reduce the number of people that the we have to hire and put on the books full time. because full time employees, that's where your biggest cost is because they're the ones that are required to have benefits, health care -- >> we're down to 15 seconds. what does that mean for corporate profits and stock levels? >> well, you see, that's a great question. about 40% of corporate profits are done at the bottom line through earnings per share valuation changes, etcetera. so value agdzs and stocks are primarily driven by accounting rather than top line growth. it doesn't mean the stock market can't go higher, but we need job
growth to make the economy turn around. >> lans, beautifully done. thank for joining us. sorry you had so little time, but thanks for for joining us. >> thank you. >> "squawk box" coming up next. . ...work with equity experts... ♪ ...who work with regional experts... ♪ ...who work with portfolio management experts, that's when expertise happens. mfs. because there is no expertise without collaboration.
good morning and welcome to "squawk box." the global markets watching the ecb meeting for monetary policy changes in the eurozone, but don't get your hopes up. another record for the s&p 500 as we head towards friday's employment report. yesterday, they said it was tuesday. i think it was wednesday -- i think that's tomorrow, but i'm not sure. and the fed reportedly opening up the fed's criminal investigation of citigroup on that banamex stuff in mexico. it's thursday, april 3rd, 2014, and "squawk box" begins right now.
good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. our top story today, the european central banks meeting to discuss the future of monetary policy in the eurozone. but the ecb is expected to remain in a holding pattern. former pimco chief mohamed el-erian and commentary on cnbc.com says policymakers are likely to -- future meetings before making any decisions like lowering rates or launching an asset purchase program. a decision is expected at 7:40 a.m. eastern time followed by a news conference from mario draghi coming up at 8:30 a.m. eastern. we will have more on today's euro events in just a few moments with ross. he'll be joining us from london. right now, take a look at the futures. check things out right now, you will see that the futures are indicated higher. dow futures up by about 14 points even after those big gains from yesterday where you saw the dow reaching aew